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HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
2100 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS
TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE 
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE
* THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO
CABO ENGANO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO
BAHIA DE MANZANILLO
* CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE 
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL
WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  63.7W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  26 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  30SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  63.7W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  62.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N  67.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N  71.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.3N  74.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N  79.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.9N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.5N  83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.6N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  63.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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