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Hurricane ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE
BORDER WITH HAITI
* ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS
* JAMAICA
* DOMINICA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...INCLUDING HURRICANE
WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  60.1W AT 02/1230Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE   0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N  60.1W AT 02/1230Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  57.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N  62.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N  67.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N  71.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N  77.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N  79.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N  82.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N  82.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N  60.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Nov-2021 12:09:08 UTC