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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052021
1500 UTC THU JUL 01 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  51.4W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  24 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N  51.4W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.9N  50.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.2N  54.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.6N  59.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N  64.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N  69.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N  73.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N  76.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  40SE  40SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.0N  80.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 25.6N  82.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N  51.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Dec-2021 12:09:06 UTC