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Tropical Storm ELSA (Text)


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Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Doppler radar and surface observation indicate that the center of 
Elsa is moving into southern South Carolina at this time.  The 
organization of the storm has changed little during the past 
several hours, with a complex of bands in the eastern semicircle.  
The initial intensity is 35 kt, and these winds are occurring along 
an area of the coast and coastal waters well southeast of the 
center.

The initial motion is now 035/16.  The track guidance is in good 
agreement that Elsa should accelerate northeastward during the next 
few days as it becomes entrained into the mid-latitude southwesterly 
flow, with the track carrying the system across the Carolinas and 
the mid-Atlantic states during the next 24 hours, then near or over 
southeastern New England and Atlantic Canada.  The new forecast 
track is basically an update of the previous track, and it is very 
close to the consensus models.

Rawinsonde data and GOES-16 RGB airmass imagery show an upper-level 
shortwave trough over the southeastern United States to the west of 
Elsa, and the global models forecast this system to follow the 
cyclone northeastward and take on a negative tilt.  This should 
result in increasing upper-level divergence over Elsa, which in turn 
should lead to some strengthening as the storm moves near or over 
the east coast of the United States.  The 00Z ECMWF model is not as 
bullish on intensification as its previous run, but it and the 00Z 
UKMET still call for strengthening, and even the weaker GFS 
forecasts the favorable upper-air pattern.  Based on this, the new 
intensity forecast shows a little more strengthening than the 
previous forecast.

Based on the new forecast track, the tropical storm warning has 
been extended northward along the United States east coast to 
Massachusetts.  Non-tropical gale warnings are in effect for the 
coastal areas to the north of the tropical storm warning due to the 
likelihood that Elsa will become extratropical as it reaches that 
area.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. As Elsa moves across the Carolinas Thursday, heavy rainfall may 
result in limited flash and urban flooding. Heavy rainfall from the 
Mid-Atlantic into New England Thursday and Friday could lead to 
considerable flash and urban flooding.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina this morning.  Tropical storm
conditions are also expected along the coasts of North Carolina 
starting later today and the mid-Atlantic by this afternoon or 
tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the 
southern New England states and New York by Friday.  Gale winds are 
expected over the portions of the New Hampshire and Maine coasts by 
late Friday or Friday night, and those conditions are possible over 
portions of Atlantic Canada Friday night and Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 33.4N  81.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  08/1800Z 35.5N  79.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0600Z 38.8N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1800Z 42.5N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  10/0600Z 46.9N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  10/1800Z 51.9N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  11/0600Z 56.6N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Dec-2021 12:09:09 UTC