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Tropical Storm Elsa Special Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021
 
This is a special advisory to issue a Hurricane Warning for a
portion of the Florida Gulf coast.  Recent observations from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum winds in Elsa are now near 60 kt.  However, the aircraft 
has not yet had a chance to sample the northeastern quadrant, so it 
is possible that higher winds exist.  Although the environment is 
not conducive for significant strengthening before landfall, only a 
slight increase in intensity would result in Elsa becoming a 
hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.
 
Aside from the small adjustments to the 12- and 24-intensity
forecasts to reflect the revised current intensity estimate, no
other changes have been made to the official forecast.  The NHC
track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the 1500 UTC
advisory.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant
flooding and mudslides.  As Elsa moves near or along the western
Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable
flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions
of Florida.  Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal
Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia
may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable
flash and  urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the
Lowcountry of South Carolina.
 
2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect for that area.
 
3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Wednesday
along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are occurring
across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread
northward along much of the west coast of the state through
Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and
portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm
conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1800Z 25.4N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 26.5N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 28.9N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 31.3N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/1200Z 33.8N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0000Z 36.7N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  10/1200Z 48.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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