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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE (Text)


ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
100 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 91.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
29.1 North, longitude 91.0 West. The system is moving erratically 
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A turn toward the 
north-northeast is expected overnight, with a turn toward the 
east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday.  On the 
forecast track, the system should move inland over Louisiana during 
the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast 
and southeastern states through the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a
tropical or subtropical storm through this morning while the
center is over or near water.  The system is expected to begin
weakening this afternoon as it moves farther inland.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.  A WeatherFlow station in 
Gulfport, Mississippi recently reported a sustained wind of 41 mph 
(66 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (84 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches) 
based on available surface observations.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
15 inches across portions of the central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.
 
As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western
Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with
isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and
isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in
the warning area today.
 
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across southeast 
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 20-Oct-2021 12:09:06 UTC