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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE (Text)


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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021
 
...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO 
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...

 
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 91.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line
Florida.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6-12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
28.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a north to north-northeast motion is
expected during the next day or so.  On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight
or early Saturday.  A northeastward or east-northeastward motion
across the southeastern United States is forecast after landfall
through the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is slowly becoming better defined, and the system still 
is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm before landfall. 
Regardless of its status, little change in strength is expected 
through landfall.  Weakening is forecast to begin after the system 
crosses the coast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
mainly to the east of the center.  An oil rig south of the 
southeastern coast of Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 
44 mph (70 km/h) and a wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1007 mb (29.74
inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3,
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable
flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and
renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely.
 
As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy
rain will expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and
central Alabama, central to northern Georgia, far western North
Carolina and western South Carolina, resulting in rainfall totals of
3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash,
urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are
possible.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft
Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft
Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are beginning to reach the coast
within the warning area, and these winds will continue into
Saturday.
 
TORNADOES: There is a threat for a tornado or two tonight
across coastal Louisiana.  A few tornadoes are possible on
Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:09:06 UTC