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Potential Tropical Cyclone THREE (Text)


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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021

Corrected to add states to storm surge communication points

...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER 
TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward for the
Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line.
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12
to 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was 
centered near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. The system 
is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this 
general motion is expected for the next day or so.  On the forecast 
track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf Coast 
tonight or early Saturday.  A slow northeastward motion across the 
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the 
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm 
is likely to form over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of 
Mexico later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches), 
based on observations from NOAA buoy 42001.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, 
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at 
www.huricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum 
amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central 
Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small 
stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated 
moderate river flooding are likely. 

As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, 
anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, 
southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in 
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 
inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding 
impacts are possible. 

The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total 
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across 
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Intracoastal City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay ...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL... 1-2 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon
across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across
southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the
western Florida Panhandle.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-Oct-2021 12:09:05 UTC