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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021
 
...THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 92.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor
the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 92.2 West. The system is moving
toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion with some 
increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so.  On 
the forecast track, the system will approach the north-central Gulf 
Coast late Friday or early Saturday.  A northeastward motion across 
the southeastern United States is likely after landfall.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast Friday and Friday night.  A 
subtropical or tropical depression or storm is likely to form
over the west-central or northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in
the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and
WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 
inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.  Rainfall totals of 
4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are 
possible beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend from 
along the Central Gulf coast, northeastward into the southern 
Appalachians. This will likely produce areas of flash, urban and 
small stream flooding as well as minor to isolated moderate river 
flooding with new and renewed rises on already elevated rivers.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Intracoastal City, LA to MS/AL Border...2-3 ft
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne...2-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft
MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-2 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area on Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
TORNADOES: The threat for a couple of tornadoes is expected to 
begin Friday afternoon across coastal Louisiana. This threat should 
expand northward across southern portions of Louisiana and 
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama Friday night into Saturday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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