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Tropical Depression Claudette Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 20 2021
 
Satellite and surface observations show that Claudette's circulation
has become elongated today and that there is a fairly large area of
light winds near the center.  Observations along the southeastern
U.S. coast and over coastal sections of the Carolinas indicate that
the winds have increased somewhat but these data still support an
initial intensity of 25 kt.   As Claudette approaches the coast 
overnight and Monday morning, restrengthening is anticipated, and 
the cyclone is forecast to regain tropical storm status before it 
exits the coast of North Carolina. Some additional strengthening 
is forecast while Claudette moves over the warm waters of the Gulf 
Stream and the shear remains low.  The system should become 
extratropical Tuesday afternoon when it passes near Nova Scotia, 
and the global models indicate that it will degenerate into a 
trough of low pressure by Wednesday morning.  The NHC intensity 
foreast is close to the intensity model consensus and follows the 
trends of the various global models.
 
The depression is moving east-northeastward at around 15 kt.  A
mid-latitude trough that is moving into the central United States
should continue to steer Claudette east-northeastward to
northeastward over the next couple of days.  The center of Claudette
is forecast to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina Monday
morning, then pass well offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday
night, and be near or just southeast of Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
The dynamical model guidance remains in very good agreement and the
NHC forecast again lies near the various consensus aids.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding from North Florida and southeastern Georgia into the 
Carolinas through Monday morning. Flash, urban, and small stream 
flooding impacts are possible across these areas. 
 
2. Isolated tornadoes are possible this evening across parts of the 
central and eastern Carolinas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
North Carolina coast late tonight and Monday, where a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in
northeastern South Carolina tonight and Monday, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 34.2N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 35.0N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/1800Z 36.9N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  22/0600Z 39.3N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 42.4N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  23/0600Z 45.5N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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