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Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
 
Claudette continues to move inland, with the center now located
over southern Mississippi.  Most of the showers and thunderstorms
are still located on the storm's east side and extend across
portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.  Based
on surface observations, the initial intensity is estimated to be
35 kt, and those winds are occurring along the coast within the
warning area and over the northern Gulf of Mexico waters.
 
The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 12 kt.  A turn
to the northeast is expected to occur soon, followed by an
east-northeastward motion tonight and Sunday as Claudette moves in
the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge.  This
motion should take the system across portions of the southeast U.S.
during the next couple of days and then over the western Atlantic
and toward Atlantic Canada early next week.  The models are in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.  This forecast is very similar to
the previous one, except a little to the right at the longer range
forecast times.
 
In the short term, land interaction should cause weakening and 
Claudette will likely become a tropical depression later today.  In 
36 to 48 hours, however, the global models, except for the GFS, show 
Claudette restrengthening when it nears and moves offshore of the 
Carolinas Sunday night and Monday.  This predicted strengthening is 
likely due in part to baroclinic processes.  The ECMWF model is the 
most aggressive during that portion of the forecast showing 
Claudette having peak winds of 45-50 kt along the coast when the 
center is located over eastern North Carolina.  Once the system 
moves north of the Gulf Stream Current in a few days, it is forecast 
to transition to an extratropical cyclone prior to reaching Atlantic 
Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the 
previous one, and in line with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Claudette is expected to produce heavy rainfall and
life-threatening flash flooding across coastal Mississippi and
Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through the afternoon.
Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, will continue
through the weekend across these areas, with flood impacts spreading
northeastward into interior portions of the Southeast.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring along portions of
the Gulf Coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.  These winds will continue
for a few more hours.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
North Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday, and a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/1500Z 31.0N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  20/0000Z 32.0N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  20/1200Z 32.9N  85.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/0000Z 33.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/1200Z 35.0N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  22/0000Z 37.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  22/1200Z 40.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 49.5N  57.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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