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Tropical Storm Ana Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012021
1100 AM AST Sun May 23 2021
 
Ana is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone this morning, as the
core of the system has become devoid of organized deep convection. A
recent ASCAT overpass showed that wind field is slowly weakening,
with peak winds of 35 kt located just to the southeast of the
center. Based on this data, the initial advisory intensity has also
been decreased to 35 kt.
 
The cyclone is currently located over cool SSTs of about 20 degrees
C and surrounded by very dry air in the mid-troposphere. The
environmental conditions will only become more hostile through
tonight, as Ana gets caught between a digging mid- to upper-level
trough to its northwest and a strong subtropical upper-level jet to
its southeast. These features will impart increasing southwesterly
shear over the system by later today, and any convection that tries
to regenerate should be stripped away. Whatever is left of Ana's
low-level circulation should then open into a trough on Monday as it
becomes absorbed by a large approaching baroclinic zone
associated with the upper-trough.
 
The storm is now moving northeastward at 12 kt, and an accelerating
forward speed is anticipated until dissipation as Ana gets caught up
in increasing deep-layered southwesterly flow.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 36.6N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 38.0N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 41.7N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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