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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
 
Satellite imagery and ASCAT-C data indicate that the area of low 
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico has become better-defined today.  The associated 
deep convection has also become more organized and convection has 
persisted over the low-level center since early this morning. In 
addition, a banding feature has also developed over the western 
portion of the circulation. Based on these trends, advisories have 
been initiated for Tropical Depression Nineteen-E. The ASCAT data 
showed winds as high as 32 kt. However, these vectors were at the 
very edge of the data swath, and may be unreliable. The initial 
intensity of 30 kt is therefore based off the latest Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB. 

The forecast for the depression is not straightforward and there is 
a larger than normal amount of uncertainty for both the future track 
and intensity of the cyclone. The global models generally do not 
favor much strengthening beyond 24 h and some of the guidance, 
including the GFS and HWRF indicate weakening. On the other hand, 
the SHIPS guidance suggests gradual strengthening and indicate the 
cyclone could be near hurricane intensity by the end of the 5-day 
forecast period. The overall environment appears conducive for 
the depression to intensify over the next several days, with very 
warm SSTs, low vertical wind shear, and plenty of atmospheric 
moisture to work with. One negative influence that the global models 
could be picking up on is an ongoing interaction with the larger 
scale Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The NHC forecast, out 
of respect for the skilled global and dynamical models, does not 
show as a robust rate of strengthening as suggested by the SHIPS 
guidance. However, some intensification is indicated throughout the 
forecast period due to the aforementioned favorable environmental 
factors.

The initial motion of the depression is 340/6 kt. This motion is 
expected to continue through tonight as the depression is steered 
by a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The ridge is 
forecast to weaken tomorrow and steering currents over the 
depression are expected to collapse through the middle of the week. 
The track guidance is highly divergent after 48 h, as the models 
appear to steer the cyclone in varying directions based off the 
interaction with the ITCZ in the midst of weak synoptic steering. 
By the end of the forecast period, the models are generally in 
better agreement on a slow northwesterly motion as the ridge 
rebuilds to the northeast of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast 
lies near the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 12.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 13.5N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 13.7N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 13.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 13.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 13.6N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 13.7N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 14.7N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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