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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
An eye has formed in visible and infrared satellite imagery since
the issuance of the previous advisory, and the surrounding
convection continues to have cold cloud tops (as cold as -83C).  The
width of the coldest tops were a little thin on the southwest
side at 1800 UTC, and because of this, subjective and objective
intensity estimates were still 90 kt.  Since that time, the eye has
become more distinct and the convection is becoming more symmetric
around the eye, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt.
 
Marie's initial position has been adjusted to the south just a bit
now that the center is more apparent with the eye formation.  This
yields a current westward motion of 280/14 kt.  The atmospheric
features responsible for steering Marie during the forecast period
will be a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over the southwestern
United States and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west
over the Pacific.  The interplay between these features is likely
to cause some wiggles in Marie's future track, but for the most
part the hurricane will be moving west-northwestward or
northwestward through day 5.  The spread in the guidance increases
toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS turning more
northward and the ECMWF maintaining a west-northwestward motion.
The other deterministic models are in between these two
solutions, clustered very close to the various multi-model
consensus aids, and that is where the NHC forecast also lies for
this advisory.
 
The environment appears conducive for this phase of rapid
intensification to continue, at least for the next 24 hours.
Deep-layer shear is just about to decrease to 10 kt or less, and
Marie will remain over waters of high ocean heat content for the
next 24-36 hours.  The intensity guidance decreased a bit on this
cycle, which seems odd given the ongoing intensification trend and
the favorable environmental conditions.  The SHIPS model does still
show that the chance for rapid intensification to continue is 3 to
5 times higher than the climatological mean, and therefore the NHC
intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous advisory,
showing a peak intensity of 120 kt.  This forecast is above the
highest intensity models by about 10-15 kt.  Weakening is still
anticipated, particularly after 48 hours, due to Marie moving over
cooler waters and being affected by increasing southwesterly shear.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 15.1N 120.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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