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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020
 
The tropical cyclone is gradually becoming better organized, with a 
Central Dense Overcast feature developing near/over the estimated 
center.  The system is experiencing moderate east-northeasterly 
shear which is currently restricting upper-level outflow over the 
eastern semicircle of the system.  Dvorak classifications from TAFB 
and SAB indicate that the cyclone's maximum winds are near 30 kt.  
The dynamical guidance indicates that the shear will soon diminish, 
and the atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite 
conducive for strengthening during the next few days.  The 
official forecast shows steady intensification with the system 
becoming a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane within 72 
hours.  This is a little below the latest intensity model 
consensus, which suggests that that the cyclone could be near major 
hurricane status in about 72 hours.

The center is not easy to locate at this time, so the initial motion 
estimate of 280/9 kt is more uncertain than usual.  A strengthening 
subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should 
maintain a westward or west-northwestward motion at an increased 
forward speed for the next 72 hours or so.  In 4-5 days, a weakness 
in the ridge in the vicinity of 130W longitude should cause the 
system to turn toward the northwest.  The official track forecast 
is a little north and northeast of the latest model consensus.

The dynamical guidance shows an expanding wind field with the 
tropical cyclone, and the official wind radii forecasts, especially 
beyond 2 days, are in close agreement with the consensus wind radii 
forecast technique, RVCN.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 13.3N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 13.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 14.4N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 14.7N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 15.4N 121.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 16.4N 124.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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