ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Fri Sep 25 2020 Lowell has produced almost no deep convection within 100 n mi of its center for more than 12 hours. As noted in the previous advisory, although there is still a small patch of convection well to east-northeast, it is pushing the boundaries of what can reasonably be considered as organized deep convection. If convection does not redevelop closer to Lowell's center soon, it could become post-tropical as soon as this afternoon. Earlier ASCAT-C data showed a wide area of winds around 35 kt, so the intensity is held at that value for this advisory. There were no noteworthy changes made to the NHC forecast. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north of Lowell is expected to steer the cyclone just south of due west for the next several days. A break in the ridge could allow it to turn northward near day 5. A combination of cool ocean temperatures and westerly shear should prevent the redevelopment of organized convection, and Lowell will gradually spin down as a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows a day 5 point, but Lowell could also dissipate by then. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered track and intensity guidance envelopes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 21.5N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 21.3N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 21.2N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 21.1N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 21.1N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 21.1N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z 21.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 30/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
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