ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 500 AM HST Thu Sep 24 2020 Lowell hasn't changed much. Cloud tops associated with the areas of remaining convection east of the lowly tropical storm's center have warmed slightly during the past few hours, but not enough to change satellite intensity estimates. The intensity is therefore held at 40 kt, in line with earlier ASCAT data. Virtually no change was made to any aspect of the NHC forecast. A mid-level ridge to the north of Lowell will likely steer the tropical storm westward for the next day or two. Lowell will move over gradually cooler waters and should weaken in response. A favorable upper-air environment may help the tropical cyclone to maintain its convection for up to 36 hours, but an increase in westerly wind shear should put an end to any remaining organized convection after that. Based on simulated satellite fields, several models forecast that it will become a remnant low even sooner than that. Low-level tradewind flow should take over the steering once the cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low, resulting in a slightly faster, but generally similar westward motion. Both the track and intensity forecasts are nearly identical to the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 21.5N 124.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 21.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 21.8N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 21.7N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 21.5N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 21.4N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 21.4N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 21.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:36 UTC