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Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Lowell's satellite appearance has improved slightly over the past
several hours, with the mass of deep convection becoming a little
more symmetrical. However, the center still appears to be near the
northeastern edge of this convection. A blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that
the cyclone has strengthened, and the initial intensity has been
increased to 45 kt. The north-northeasterly shear is expected to
persist for the next few days, and the cyclone is only expected to
remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees C for the 24-36 h.
Therefore, only some slow strengthening is expected during the
next day or so. At around 72 h, Lowell is expected to begin moving
over waters of around 25 degrees C while entering a drier and more
stable airmass. These conditions should cause the cyclone to weaken.
Late in the forecast period, model guidance suggests that Lowell
will encounter strong westerly wind shear. There is a possibility
that the cyclone could lose its deep convection once that shear sets
in, and although the latest advisory does not indicate it, Lowell
could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the
corrected consensus HCCA.
 
The storm is estimated to be moving 290/11 kt, on the southern side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should continue through
Wednesday, followed by a turn to the west as the ridge changes its
orientation slightly.  The latest NHC track forecast is near the
previous one through 24 h and is only a little north of it
thereafter due to a shift in the track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/1500Z 18.4N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 19.0N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 20.1N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  24/1200Z 20.4N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  25/0000Z 20.5N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  25/1200Z 20.6N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  26/1200Z 20.6N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 20.6N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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