ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172020 300 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2020 The area of disturbed weather several hundred miles south of the southern tip of Baja California has developed enough organized deep convection and a well-enough defined center to declare it a tropical cyclone. This is supported by subjective Dvorak classifications from both SAB and TAFB with an initial intensity of 25 kt. The initial motion is an uncertain 275 degrees at 9 kt. As the system should be moving over warm 29C SSTs, encountering moist mid-level humidities, and experiencing low to moderate amounts of tropospheric vertical shear, steady intensification is expected through the next three days. Around days four and five, the tropical cyclone should encounter both drier air and cooler SSTs, likely curtailing any further development and leading toward slow weakening. The intensity forecast is between the bullish dynamical models calling for a peak at a Category 1 hurricane in about three days, and the bearish statistical guidance suggesting a moderate to high-end tropical storm at the system's peak. The track models are in much better agreement with all suggesting a turn toward the west-northwest at a slightly faster forward speed for the next three days, under the steering influence of a narrow deep-layer ridge north of the system. By day four, an amplifying ridge north of the tropical cyclone should turn it back toward the west again. The track forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.8N 109.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.2N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 19.3N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 19.7N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea NNNN
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