ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020 200 AM PDT Mon Aug 17 2020 The last remaining bit of Fausto's deep convection dissipated around 10 PM PDT (0500 UTC), with the depression's center now over sea surface temperatures of about 23 degrees Celsius. An ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed an area of 20-25 kt winds mainly to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt. Fausto is expected to move over slightly colder waters during the next few days, and it is unlikely that significant deep convection will be able to redevelop. Therefore, maximum winds will continue to gradually decrease, and Fausto is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today. Based on global model fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 2-3 days. The ASCAT pass indicated that Fausto's center was a little farther south than previously estimated, and the initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. High pressure in the low levels of the atmosphere to the west of California is expected to cause Fausto and its remnants to turn westward and west-southwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is close to HCCA and the model consensus aids, and it's a little bit south of the previous official track to account for the southward adjustment of the initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 23.1N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 23.7N 126.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0600Z 23.9N 128.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 23.7N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 23.0N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:22 UTC