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Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
The deep convection has decreased in coverage over the cyclone 
today, but the center remains underneath clouds tops of about -60 C. 
The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by the latest Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB, but this may be a little 
generous based on late-arriving ASCAT overpass data. There is no 
change to the forecast intensity philosophy. Fausto has crossed the 
26 C SST isotherm and will be heading towards waters cooler than 24 
C by Monday morning. Therefore a weakening trend is expected to 
begin soon. The deep convection should decrease and the cyclone is 
forecast degenerate to a remnant low Monday night.
 
Fausto has accelerated and is now moving northwestward at around 17 
kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. As the 
cyclone loses its convection, it should turn west or just south of 
west as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official 
forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered guidance and is 
little changed from the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 21.5N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 24.1N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 24.3N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 23.9N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0600Z 23.2N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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