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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020
 
Deep convection has redeveloped over the southern and western 
portions of the depression's circulation this evening, however, 
the low-level center remains exposed due to moderate to strong
northeasterly shear.  There has been little change to the satellite 
intensity estimates since this afternoon and no recent scatterometer 
data.  As a result, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The 
northeasterly shear preventing the depression from strengthening is 
not forecast to abate over the next 2-3 days, and no significant 
change in intensity is forecast during that time.  If the cyclone 
survives into early next week, the shear is forecast to lessen, 
which could allow for some modest strengthening later in the period. 
The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is a 
blend of the latest statistical guidance and the multi-model 
intensity consensus. 
 
The depression is meandering westward or 260/3 kt. The cyclone 
is not expected to move very far over the next several days.  A 
low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the system is forecast to 
steer the depression west-southwestward to westward over the next 
day or so, but as the ridge weakens and changes orientation a slow
northwestward motion is expected by early next week.  While there
remains some spread in the model guidance, they generally agree
that the depression will not move much through the forecast period, 
and little overall change to the previous forecast was required.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 13.4N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 13.3N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 13.3N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 13.5N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 13.9N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 14.2N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 14.4N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 14.4N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 14.0N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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