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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
800 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020
 
Since the last advisory, the depression has maintained a small
ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant. Intensity
fixes from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS (both ADT and SATCON) do not
indicate that the system has changed appreciably so the intensity
remains 30 kt for this advisory.
 
The intensity guidance is generally more bullish on the future of 
the depression than it has been previously. The COAMPS-TC and GFS 
now forecast strengthening to occur in a few days, and the latter of 
those models forms a symmetric CDO with an eye in simulated 
satellite imagery around day 5. In the short term, strong 
northeasterly shear should continue to limit the development 
potential of the cyclone, but upper-level winds could become less 
hostile in a few days. The main change to the NHC intensity forecast 
was to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone through day 5 and 
to show some minimal strengthening near the end of the period, 
though it is slightly below the intensity consensus. That said, 
there is perhaps equal probability that the system could become a 
remnant low before the environmental conditions improve, in which 
case no increase in the system's winds will likely occur.
 
No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast. The 
depression is moving west-southwestward near 5 kt, steered by a low- 
to mid-level ridge to its north. The global models indicate that the 
ridge will weaken in a day or two, allowing the system to gain a 
little latitude. Regardless of its exact heading, only a slow drift 
is expected through early next week. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 13.6N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 13.4N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 13.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 13.3N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 13.6N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 14.1N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 14.5N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 14.8N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 14.8N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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