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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA (Text)


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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
Elida has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and 
since it is over SSTs of 22-23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that 
organized deep convection will return.  As a result, the system 
has become a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC 
advisory on Elida.  The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt, 
which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB 
and SAB.  The cyclone is heading toward even cooler waters and a 
more stable environment.  Continued weakening is therefore 
expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Friday 
morning. 

The initial motion estimate is 315/8 kt. A low- to mid-level 
trough located to the northwest of the cyclone has caused a break 
in the subtropical ridge.  This has allowed the system to turn 
northwestward, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion is 
expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. The global 
model guidance continues to suggest that the low-level center will 
decelerate as the mid-level circulation is pulled northward ahead 
of the aforementioned trough.  The new NHC track foreast is similar 
to the previous advisory and again shows a slower forward motion 
than the global model trackers. 

This is the last NHC advisory on Elida.  For additional information 
on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header 
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 24.4N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC