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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Recent infrared satellite imagery shows that the cloud tops 
associated with the tropical cyclone have gradually warmed, 
especially over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  A 
timely 2357 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicated that the 
southern portion of the eye has eroded and that the low-level 
center is located a little south of recent position estimates 
using visible satellite imagery.  The latest subjective and 
objective Dvorak satellite estimates range from about 60-90 kt.  
The advisory intensity has been set at 75 kt, which is in best 
agreement with the latest UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate, and is a blend 
of the of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

The cyclone has already crossed the 26C isotherm and is headed 
toward significantly cooler waters.  In addition, the vertical wind 
shear is predicted to increase slightly over the next 12-24 hours. 
These negative environmental factors should lead to rapid weakening 
over the next 24 to 36 hours.  Elida is forecast to weaken to a 
tropical storm on Wednesday, and it should degenerate into a 
post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it loses its deep 
convection.  The new NHC intensity forecast essentially follows the 
trend of the previous advisory, and is in good agreement with the 
various consensus aids. 

Elida continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  The 
cyclone should remain on this general heading through Wednesday as 
it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge 
centered over the southwestern United States.  After that time, a 
trough located well west of southern California is expected to 
weaken the western portion of the ridge, causing Elida to slow down 
and turn northwestward.  The dynamical model guidance is in good 
agreement on this scenario, and no significant change to the 
previous forecast was required. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/0300Z 22.5N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 23.2N 118.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 24.1N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 25.1N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/1200Z 27.5N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC