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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Elida continued to get better organized through about 12Z, with the
eye becoming better defined inside the cold overcast.  Since then,
the eye has become a little less distinct, suggesting that the
hurricane has peaked in intensity.  Satellite intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB were 90 kt at 12Z, and based mainly on these the 
initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 85 kt.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 305/12 kt.  The track 
guidance is in good agreement than Elida should move west- 
northwestward for the next 36 h or so, and this part of the new 
forecast track is similar to the previous track.  After that, there 
is spread between the NAVGEM/UK Ensemble mean/COAMPS-TC models, 
which show a more westward motion, and the bulk of the remaining 
guidance which shows a northwestward motion with a decrease in 
forward speed due to Elida interacting with an upper-level low off 
of the coast of California.  The new forecast follows the 
northwestward scenario and the various consensus models, and it has 
been nudged to the right of the previous forecast.
 
Elida is moving toward colder sea surface temperatures, with the
center forecast to be over 24C water in 24 h and 23C in 48 h.  This
should lead to rapid weakening after 12 h or so.  The new intensity 
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and the previous 
forecast in calling for Elida to drop below hurricane strength in 
just over 24 h and to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 h.  The new 
forecast has the remnant low dissipating between 72-96 h, and the 
global models suggest this could occur earlier than currently 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/1500Z 21.3N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 22.1N 115.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 23.1N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 23.9N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 24.8N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  14/0000Z 25.8N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC