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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2020
 
Elida's convective pattern has become significantly better organized 
since the 0600Z T4.5/77-kt Dvorak satellite classifications from 
TAFB and SAB. A 10-nmi-diameter eye has become embedded within a 
white ring (cloud tops colder than -70C), while the upper-level 
outflow has expanded and become more symmetrical. In addition, 
earlier WindSat microwave satellite data indicated that Elida 
possessed a 10-nmi-wide low-level eye. Based on these data and the 
recent improvement in Elida's convective and eye structure, the 
intensity has been increased to a conservative 80 kt.
 
Elida's motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. So 
much for yesterday's forecast calling for the hurricane to begin 
turning more westward by this time. Elida has maintained a motion of 
300 degrees for the past 48 h or so, and there doesn't appear to be 
any significant steering feature to change that to a westward course 
over the next few days. In fact, some of the global models actually 
turn Elida northward into a mid-level ridge after 48 hours. For 
now, however, the official forecast track keeps the hurricane 
moving generally west-northwestward to northwestward, accompanied by 
a gradual decrease in forward speed, throughout the forecast 
period. The new track forecast lies between the previous advisory 
track to the south and the consensus models to the north.

Elida is likely close to reaching its peak intensity, although some 
additional slight strengthening is still possible this morning 
before the hurricane starts moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface 
temperatures (SST) in about 12 h. Thereafter, SSTs steadily decrease 
along the path of the cyclone, dropping to below 24C by 36 hours and 
to near 22C by 72 hours. Thus, steady weakening is forecast after 12 
hours with Elida becoming a remnant low by 48 h, followed by 
continued weakening until the cyclone dissipates in 96-120 hours. 
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to both the previous 
advisory and the latest NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity 
models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0900Z 20.7N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  11/1800Z 21.5N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  12/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1800Z 23.4N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/0600Z 24.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  13/1800Z 25.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/0600Z 25.8N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/0600Z 27.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:56 UTC