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Hurricane ELIDA (Text)


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Hurricane Elida Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020
 
Elida continues to gradually gain strength.  Satellite images show
that the storm has a well organized central dense overcast and
curved bands that surround that feature.  Recent microwave images
show a partial eyewall, but dry slots appear to be preventing it
from completely closing off.  The satellite intensity estimates
have increased, and support upgrading Elida to a 65-kt hurricane.
The center of Elida is passing just north of Socorro Island.
 
The hurricane has about another day over warm water and in
generally favorable atmospheric conditions, so some additional
strengthening seems likely during that time period.  After that,
however, progressively cooler waters, drier air, and an increase in
southerly shear in a few days should cause a steady weakening
trend.  Elida will likely become a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when
it is forecast to be in quite dry conditions and over cool 23 C
waters.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to lie at the high 
end of the guidance in the short term, but falls near the middle of 
the guidance envelope beyond a couple of days.

Elida is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A mid-level ridge 
located over northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. should steer 
the hurricane west-northwestward at about the same forward speed 
for another couple of days.  After that time, the models diverge 
with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF showing a more northward 
motion toward a mid- to upper-level trough.  Conversely, the HWRF, 
UKMET, and other models show a more westward motion in the low-level 
flow. As a compromise, the NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
northward, but it still lies closer to the southern end of the 
guidance.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 21.4N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 22.3N 117.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 23.0N 119.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 23.4N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 23.8N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 21-Oct-2020 12:11:55 UTC