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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020
 
Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last 
advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold 
cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial 
intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with 
the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON 
estimates. 
 
The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with 
very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be 
underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII 
showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h, 
the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short 
term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing 
the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By 
36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low, 
which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an 
increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued 
gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane 
intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all 
interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the 
next few days.
 
The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or
285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward
motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive
mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the
period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brennan
 
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