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Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite imagery and overnight scatterometer data indicate that the 
low pressure area to the southeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E 
has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection 
to be considered a tropical depression.  Thus, advisories are being 
initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E.  The initial intensity is 
30 kt based on the scatterometer data and a subjective Dvorak 
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 240/6, with the depression being steered by a 
portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical 
Depression Seven-E.  This motion should persist with some 
increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward 
the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly.  This should 
be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest after 60h.  The 
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC 
forecast is in the middle of the guidance and close to the various 
consensus models.

The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light 
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next 
several days.  The intensity guidance calls for steady 
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this 
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.  
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about 
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the 
forecast, so it is possible that the cyclone will strengthen more 
than currently forecast.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 13.7N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 13.1N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 12.4N 123.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 11.8N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 11.7N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 11.9N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 12.7N 134.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 14.5N 139.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 16.5N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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