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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020
 
Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed 
that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast 
of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of 
a long curved band that goes around portions of its western 
semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests 
that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the 
organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned 
yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the 
last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the 
center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind 
speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now.

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the 
east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial 
position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has 
not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. 
should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through 
the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest 
multi-model consensus at all forecast times.

The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have 
inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to 
persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models 
still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable 
environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two, 
a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be 
surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the 
guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina 
is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to 
weakening over the weekend.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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