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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
 
Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear, 
with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the 
northeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a 
blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS 
satellite consensus.  A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and 
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow 
weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a 
remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h.  The new 
intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7.  Boris should 
move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small 
cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After 
that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then 
west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the 
low-level trade wind flow.  The new official track forecast has 
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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