Tropical Storm ETA (Text)

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020
Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the 
northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler 
radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level 
circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so 
far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the 
southwestern portion of the convective mass.  However, it is 
possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level 
center overnight.  The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level 
winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt.  Based on these data the 
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt. 

Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has 
once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical 
model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a 
faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast.  As 
a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies 
near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h.  After that time, 
the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids 
as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the 
Florida Big Bend.  While the new track has been shifted 
significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the 
previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion 
between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in 
the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is 
still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further 
adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight. 
Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday 
while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of 
low-to-moderate vertical wind shear.  If the center re-forms closer 
to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within 
the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, increasing southwesterly 
shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening.  The 
updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model 

Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion 
of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being 
issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida.  Additional 
warnings could be required early Wednesday.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions 
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River, 
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area 
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along 
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee 
River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla 
River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should 
monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may 
be needed overnight. 

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and 
south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions 
of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida 
Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is 
possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously 
inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the 
eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through 
INIT  11/0300Z 23.8N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 25.0N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 26.5N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 27.7N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 28.8N  83.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 29.7N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  14/0000Z 30.3N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  15/0000Z 30.8N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Brown

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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:49 UTC