Hurricane ETA (Text)

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020
Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to 
undergo rapid strengthening.  Visible and infrared satellite imagery 
reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top 
temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in 
infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery 
and recent visible satellite data.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this 
morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight- 
level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt.  
The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass 
through the center. With the continued improvement in organization 
since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased 
to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent.  Low vertical wind 
shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to 
allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24 
hours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the 
intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4 
hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall, 
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous 
terrain of Central America.
The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little 
slower than before.  A mid-level ridge building over the 
south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn 
west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the 
center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the 
hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn 
westward, moving farther inland over Central America.  The track 
guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but 
the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and 
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  Although 
Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over 
Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a 
cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into 
the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's 
remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging 
over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the 
uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite 
Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.

Key Messages:
1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and 
additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the 
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage 
is expected where Eta’s eyewall moves onshore, and preparations 
should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.  
2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.
3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,
along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning
area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
INIT  02/1500Z 14.8N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 14.4N  82.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 14.0N  83.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 13.9N  83.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 48H  04/1200Z 13.9N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/0000Z 14.2N  85.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  05/1200Z 14.6N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  06/1200Z 15.8N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  07/1200Z 17.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
Forecaster Brown

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:10:44 UTC