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Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...18.0N 84.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 84.0 West.  Zeta is
meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days.  On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Zeta
could become a hurricane by the time it moves near or over the
Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba,  and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.  Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches are
possible across southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.
 
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area in the Yucatan
peninsula late Monday, and could occur in the warning area in
Western Cuba on Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Watch area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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