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BULLETIN
Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020
 
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A DANGEROUS STORM 
SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 86.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, 
to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, 
Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay. 
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the
Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake
Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida, and from west
of Morgan City to Intracoastal City.
 
The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for Pinar del Rio.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen Mexico
* West of Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and 
Mobile Bay 
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 12 to 24 hours.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Zeta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 86.0 West.  Zeta is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A northwestward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or
so, followed by a turn toward the north Tuesday night. A faster
northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the northern
Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast in 
the watch area on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Zeta makes
landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.  Some weakening is likely while
Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula late tonight and early
Tuesday.  Zeta is forecast to strengthen again when it moves over
the southern Gulf of Mexico later on Tuesday and be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast on 
Wednesday. 
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause 
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters 
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if 
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6 
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion 
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola 
Bay...2-4 ft    
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint 
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding 
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, 
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zeta’s track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.
 
An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast Tuesday night, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday. The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana across southern Mississippi,
Alabama and northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through 
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.  
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches 
are expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane 
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area in 
Mexico this evening.  

Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area on 
the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, and tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area on the 
northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday. 

 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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