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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
 
...ZETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 83.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.7 North,
longitude 83.6 West. Zeta is currently stationary and is continuing
to re-organize. However, a slow north-northwestward to northwestward
motion is expected to resume later today. A turn toward the
west-northwest and an increase in forward speed are forecast by
Monday, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba
early Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
 
Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is
expected during the next 48 to 72 hours, and Zeta is forecast to
become a hurricane by early Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km),
mainly southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
NOAA aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall bands will be expansive along and
east-northeast of Zeta’s track. Across portions of central and
western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan
peninsula of Mexico, Southern Florida and the Keys, storm total
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12 inches are
possible through Wednesday.
 
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in Cuba by Monday morning.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in
Mexico by Monday evening.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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