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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020
 
Convection in Epsilon's southeastern quadrant has faded during the
past several hours, including the outer eyewall that was previously
nearly closed. The hurricane's cloud shield has consequently taken
on a very asymmetric shape. Satellite intensity estimates from all
agencies have decreased since this afternoon, so the intensity is
lowered slightly to 70 kt. It is worth noting that regardless of 
the peak winds, recent ASCAT data indicate that the wind field of 
the hurricane has expanded.
 
Epsilon is now moving over a relatively warm eddy in the Gulf
Stream and this may prevent the hurricane's structure from
substantially decaying further for another 12 to 24 hours. In fact,
some models still indicate that Epsilon could briefly regain some
strength tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening the hurricane should
begin moving over cooler waters, and extratropical (ET) transition 
will likely begin in earnest. The cyclone will still likely be at 
or  near hurricane strength when the ET process is completed in 
around 48 h. Perhaps more importantly, Epsilon will continue to 
produce a large area of gale- and storm-force winds even after it 
becomes post-tropical. Epsilon is then forecast to merge with 
another large non-tropical low early next week, and the resulting 
low pressure system could produce hazardous conditions over 
portions of far North Atlantic for several more days thereafter.
 
Almost no change was made to the NHC track forecast. Epsilon is 
expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction 
over the course of the next couple of days ahead of a deep-layer 
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. The models are in 
excellent agreement for a recurving cyclone. While there is always 
some uncertainty in the forward speed of such cases, confidence in 
the NHC forecast is relatively high. The track, intensity, and wind 
radii forecasts are all near the various multi-model consensus aids 
(TVCN, IVCN, and RVCN).
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 36.5N  62.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 38.1N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 40.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 43.6N  50.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 47.4N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  26/1200Z 51.7N  29.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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