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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 
FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DELTA.  HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  86.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 120SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  86.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  85.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N  88.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N  90.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N  92.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N  92.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.2N  92.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.0N  91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N  87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.5N  82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N  86.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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