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TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL252020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 03 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO
CANCUN...INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN MEXICO INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO PUNTA ALLEN MEXICO
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH OF PUNTA HERRERO TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA MEXICO
* WEST OF DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  87.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  87.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  87.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.8N  88.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  30SE  20SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N  88.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  20SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.3N  88.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.1N  89.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  40SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  40SE  40SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N  92.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N  93.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  87.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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