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Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the 
center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep 
convection.  The displacement of the center from the convection 
is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear.  The 
initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B 
overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt.  

Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, 
and a drier mid-level environment.  These negative factors should 
lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate 
the cyclone within the next few days.  The official forecast 
follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could 
weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. 

The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. 
Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading 
through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow 
by Sunday night or Monday.  The latest NHC track forecast is once 
again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 14.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 15.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 15.8N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 16.2N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 16.4N  49.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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