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Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020
 
Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over 
the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning.  In 
addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit 
with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center.  
The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with 
scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the 
eastern side of the storm).  Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing 
the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is 
the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier 
than Vince of 2005.

Further intensification is possible during the next day or two 
before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the 
path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days.  That 
should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and 
most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up 
into a trough by day 5.  The official forecast follows this 
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the 
consensus and corrected-consensus aids.

Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt.  The storm 
is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, 
owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. 
The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is 
near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the 
direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus.  I should mention that 
if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a 
bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected 
southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back 
west-northwestward.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 11.9N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 12.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 13.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 14.5N  40.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 15.6N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  21/0000Z 16.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 17.3N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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