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Tropical Depression Vicky Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL212020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020
 
Vicky is feeling the affects of very strong upper-level winds 
associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy.  These winds have 
caused the remaining convection to be stripped well away from the 
center, and recent ASCAT data indicates that Vicky has weakened to 
a tropical depression.  The ASCAT data support a peak wind speed 
of 30 kt.  Vertical wind shear of 40-50 kt is forecast to continue 
plaguing Vicky, and the cyclone should continue to weaken and 
become a remnant low later today. The global models indicate that 
the circulation will open up into a trough within 36 to 48 hours, 
and the official forecast calls for dissipation within that time 
period. 

Now that Vicky has become a vertically shallow cyclone, it has 
turned south of due west and is moving 260/12 kt.  Vicky or its 
remnants should turn west-southwestward later today as it is 
steered by the low-level northeasterly flow.  The latest NHC track 
forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus 
model.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 21.4N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 21.0N  39.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/1200Z 20.4N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  19/0000Z 19.6N  43.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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