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Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192020
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020
 
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 81.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Ochlockonee River to Okaloosa/Walton County Line
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Tropical storm or hurricane watches, and 
storm surge watches, could be issued for a portion of that area 
later today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Nineteen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 81.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and 
a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today.  A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with a decrease in
forward speed is then expected during the next couple of days.  On
the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and Sunday, and
then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected when the center moves over the Gulf of 
Mexico, and the depression is expected to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight, and continue to intensify Sunday and
Monday.  The system is forecast to become a hurricane by late 
Monday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
the Florida Panhandle by Sunday night.  Wind gusts to tropical-
storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida
peninsula today.
 
RAINFALL:  Tropical Depression Nineteen is expected to produce total 
rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated 8 inch amounts over the 
Florida Keys through tonight with 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum 
amounts of 6 inches across southern Florida and the western Florida 
coast to the Tampa Bay metro area.  This rainfall will produce 
flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high 
flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida.

The depression is expected to produce through Tuesday rainfall of 3 
to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 inches along the Gulf Coast 
from the Florida Peninsula to southeast Louisiana Sunday and 2 to 4 
inches farther inland over far southern Alabama, Mississippi and 
southeast Louisiana.  This is expected to be a slow-moving system 
that will likely continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable 
flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next 
week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and 
minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers is likely. 
 
SURF:  Swells are expected to spread northward along the
west-central coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle during the
next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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