ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020
 
Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep
convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both
the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at
18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the
few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify
the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has
increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that
deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is 
still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does 
not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight.
 
Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity
forecasts. Rene's forward speed has continued to slow down since
this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then
southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building
low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene
will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized
bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation
gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence
will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or
thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that
Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if
not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 27.3N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 27.7N  48.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 27.4N  48.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/0600Z 26.9N  49.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  15/1800Z 26.3N  50.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/0600Z 25.7N  52.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN