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Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020
 
A fragmented band of deep convection has recently developed over the 
northern portion of the circulation, but the associated cloud tops 
are already warming, suggesting that dry air is continuing to hinder 
development.  Dvorak classifications of T2.0 (30 kt) from both TAFB 
and SAB, and the earlier ASCAT data are the basis for the 30-kt 
initial intensity.  The depression is expected to remain within an 
area of dry mid-level air and increasing west- northwesterly shear 
on Sunday, and these factors are likely to contribute to gradual 
weakening over the next couple of days.  While the shear is 
forecast to abate later in the period, the SHIPS guidance indicates 
mid-level relative humidity values of 30-40 percent, which suggest 
weakening is likely to continue.  The global models also weaken the 
system with the UK and ECMWF showing dissipation within 4-5 days.  
The new NHC intensity forecast is again lowered from before and now 
calls for Rene to become a remnant low in 72 h and dissipate by day 
5. Both of these events, however, could occur much sooner. 

Rene is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. A blocking ridge of 
high pressure is forecast to build to the northwest of Rene on 
Sunday which is expected to considerably slow the forward progress 
of the cyclone.  As the ridge continues to shift eastward and 
build, Rene or its remnants are forecast to turn west-southwestward 
in the low-level steering flow early next week.  The overall 
guidance envelope as changed little from this morning, and the new 
NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous 
advisory. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 24.3N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 25.6N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 26.9N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 27.4N  48.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 27.2N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  15/0600Z 26.7N  49.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 25.8N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  16/1800Z 24.7N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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