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Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020
 
Satellite images show that the system remains sheared with a
bursting pattern on satellite, occasionally exposing the center, 
and a large area of curved bands in the southeastern quadrant of 
the circulation. Almost all of the subjective and objective Dvorak 
estimates, along with SATCON values, are between 35 to 40 kt, and 
the lower number is chosen as the initial wind speed since 
scatterometer data suggests 30 to 35 kt.  This makes Omar the 15th 
named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, and is the 
earliest 15th storm on record, besting the previous mark by about 
a week from Ophelia of 2005. 
 
Any chance for strengthening should end by tomorrow afternoon due
to greatly increasing shear, and weakening is likely to commence by
then.  The persistence of the shear should cause the cyclone to
decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours, if not sooner.  No
significant changes were made to the previous forecast, which is 
near the model consensus.
 
The initial motion remains east-northeast or 065/13 kt.  The
cyclone is being steered by the northern side of the subtropical
ridge, which is forecast to cause a similar motion through tomorrow
and an eastward turn late week due to the orientation of the ridge.
The only notable change to the forecast is a slow down at long
range in most of the guidance, probably due to a shallow system
no longer feeling the stronger deep-layer winds, so the NHC track
prediction follows suit.  The remnant low should dissipate in 4-5
days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 35.3N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 36.1N  69.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 36.7N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 37.2N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 37.2N  61.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 37.0N  59.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z 37.0N  57.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 39.5N  53.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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