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Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020
 
Laura has continued to weaken this afternoon.  The satellite and
radar presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to degrade,
and the center has now moved into southern Arkansas.  The initial
intensity has been reduced to 45 kt, and is based on a blend of
surface observations, Doppler radar data, and typical over land 
tropical cyclone filling rates.  Sustained tropical storm force
winds have been observed in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to
nearly 50 kt were reported in southern Arkansas earlier this
afternoon.
 
Laura will continue to rapidly weaken during the next 6-12 hours,
and it is expected to become a tropical depression either this
evening or overnight.  The extratropical remnants could strengthen
over the western Atlantic early next week, and the track and
intensity forecast for that time is based on guidance from
the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
The tropical storm has turned north-northeastward or 015/13 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward, and then east-
northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies on Friday.  This motion will take Laura or its remnants
across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on
Saturday.  After that time, the system should accelerate
east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic.  The
updated NHC track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory
and is close to the various consensus models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue
near the center of Laura over portions of extreme northern Louisiana
and Arkansas this evening.
 
2. Flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways
will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and
Arkansas.  Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate
freshwater river flooding.  The heavy rainfall threat and flash and
urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the
middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and
Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday.
 
3. A few tornadoes are possible this evening across central and
eastern Arkansas into Mississippi.  The risk for a few tornadoes
should redevelop Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the
Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 33.4N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/0600Z 35.3N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 36.7N  89.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0600Z 37.4N  85.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  29/1800Z 38.2N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  30/0600Z 39.6N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/1800Z 43.1N  63.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1800Z 48.8N  50.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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