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Tropical Storm ISAIAS (Text)


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Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
 
...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the
east coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida to Fenwick Island Delaware
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay southward from Smith Point
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Fenwick Island Delaware northward to Watch Hill Rhode Island
* Chesapeake Bay north of Smith Point
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
 
Interests elsewhere along the northeast coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of Isaias.  Additional watches or
warnings may be required today.
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 79.8 West. Isaias is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning.  A turn toward
the north and north-northeast along with an increase in forward
speed is anticipated later today and Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Isaias will pass just to the east of the
Florida east coast through this morning.  The center of Isaias will
then move offshore of the coast of Georgia and southern South
Carolina later today, move inland over eastern South Carolina or
southern North Carolina tonight and move along the coast of the
mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next
36 hours, but Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm when
it reaches the coast of eastern South Carolina or southern North
Carolina tonight.  Slow weakening is forecast after Isaias makes
landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. mid-Atlantic
region tonight and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.  NOAA buoy 41010, located about 130 miles (210 km)
east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, reported sustained winds of 54 mph
(86 km/h) with a wind gust to 63 mph (101 km/h) within the past few
hours.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Edisto Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft
Sebastian Inlet FL to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
North of Cape Fear NC to Kiptopeke VA including Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Neuse River, Pamlico River, Chesapeake Bay, and
the Tidal Potomac River...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in South
and North Carolina tonight and early Tuesday.
 
Tropical storm conditions will spread northward within the Tropical
Storm Warning area from Florida to North Carolina through tonight.
 
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area beginning on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:
 
Northwest Bahamas: Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
12 inches.
 
Eastern Florida: Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 4
inches.
 
Coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches.
 
Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
 
Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, isolated
maximum totals 6 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall from Isaias will continue to result in potentially
life-threatening flash flooding in the Northwest Bahamas through
tonight.  Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, is expected through
midweek along and near the path of Isaias across the East Coast of
the United States.  Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
possible across portions of the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic.
Additionally, quick-responding rivers in the southern Appalachians
and Northeast will be susceptible to minor river flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible over coastal South
Carolina during the afternoon and evening today, and across
eastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Oct-2020 12:09:20 UTC