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Tropical Storm ISAIAS (Text)


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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092020
500 PM EDT Mon Aug 03 2020
 
...ISAIAS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE WITH DANGEROUS WINDS AND STORM SURGE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 79.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to
Stonington Maine.
 
The Tropical Storm Warning south of Savannah River has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Fear North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico
Rivers
* Oregon Inlet North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Oregon Inlet North Carolina
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
* North of Surf City North Carolina to Stonington Maine
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Chesapeake Bay
* Tidal Potomac River
* Delaware Bay
* Long Island and Long Island Sound
* Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Stonington to Eastport Maine
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning
Graphic at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary
actions to protect life and property from rising water and the
potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow
evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was 
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.0 North, 
longitude 79.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the north-northeast 
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion accompanied by a 
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through tonight 
followed by a further increase in the forward speed on Tuesday.  On 
the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the coasts of 
northeastern South Carolina and southern North Carolina within the 
hurricane warning area this evening.  The center will then move 
inland across eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, move 
along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday, and continue 
across the northeastern United States Tuesday night.
 
Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum 
sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some 
strengthening is forecast later this afternoon or early evening, and 
Isaias is expected to make landfall tonight at or near hurricane 
strength along the coast of northeastern South Carolina or southern 
North Carolina. Only gradual weakening is anticipated after Isaias 
makes landfall in the Carolinas and moves across the U.S. 
mid-Atlantic region tonight and Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) 
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind 
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) were measured by 
a Weatherflow site at Folly Beach Pier, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
South Santee River SC to Cape Fear NC...3-5 ft
 
Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC...2-4 ft
 
Cape Fear NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border including Pamlico
Sound, Albemarle Sound, Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...2-4 ft
 
Savannah River to Edisto Beach SC...1-3 ft
 
North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Martha's Vineyard
including the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac River, Delaware Bay,
Long Island Sound, Block Island Sound, Narragansett Bay, Buzzards
Bay, and Vineyard Sound...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in South and North Carolina this evening and tonight, 
with tropical storm conditions spreading onshore in the next few 
hours. 
 
Widespread tropical-storm-conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area from coastal North Carolina to the
mid-Atlantic states, including portions of the Chesapeake Bay 
region, tonight and Tuesday, with wind gusts to hurricane force 
possible. These winds could cause tree damage and power outages.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New
England Tuesday afternoon and northern New England Tuesday night 
and early Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL:  The following rainfall accumulations are expected along
and near the track of Isaias:
 
Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum
totals 8 inches.
 
Eastern New York and western New England from Connecticut to New
Hampshire: 2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum totals 6 inches.
 
Western and northern Maine: 1 to 3 inches.
 
Heavy rainfall along the East Coast, near the path of Isaias, will
result in flash and urban flooding, some of which may be significant
in the eastern Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through
Wednesday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is possible
across portions of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic.
Quick-responding rivers in Northeast will also be susceptible to
minor river flooding.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes will be possible near northeastern South
Carolina coastal areas by early this evening, before spreading
across eastern North Carolina tonight into Tuesday morning. A couple
of tornadoes will be possible on Tuesday from eastern Virginia
northeastward into southern New England.

SURF:  Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of the
Bahamas and the southeast coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the U.S. east coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Oct-2020 12:09:21 UTC